I had noticed some interesting patterns in the Oil price vs the NDP support the other day so I went rooting around for other correlations. As it turns out there are many, but none as telling as the CAD/USD exchange rate. America has the DXY to monitor the strength of the US Dollar. However here in Canada we mainly us the USD exchange rate as a benchmark of value. It is in this currency pair that most telling international view of the Canadian election is found.
Though a large range the 6 weeks lead that the NDP started the election with corresponded to a 6week range on the chart. It is not noted on the chart but the low on the 24th was also the peak of NDP support. Next point of interest is the where the number 2 is located. The Conservatives bolted into the lead as the NDP bled support to the Liberals and the clearly international investors were not keen on another Conservative government. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) stayed in a down trend the entire time the Conservatives had the lead. Then as if it was magic the day the Liberals first challenged the lead the CAD put in a low and has been trending up ever since.
It is clear that international investors see new hope with a Liberal government and a majority over a minority would be that much stronger for Canada abroad. Investors were neutral to mildly bearish on the NDP and very bearish on the Conservatives winning again. The world wants to see change in Canada. Normally the CAD/USD is tied to the the price of Oil, but it is clear that in this all important election that the public’s choice of the next leader is having a huge effect on its international image. The election takes place on Oct 19 2015, should see some amazing volatility that day. If the Liberals stay set to win a spike up on the CAD after exit polls are released seems reasonable.
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