CA25 & November Implications

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A Rapidly Changing Narrative

Democrat Katie Hill flipped this seat in the last election with 54.4% of the vote over incumbent Republican Steve Knight, who had 45.6%. Mike Garcia reclaiming CA25 by a 12 point margin in LA/Ventura mixed with Biden’s over performance in the California Primary shows that more people want a “moderate” approach to politics than the media is letting on.

The rapidly changing outbreaks across the world mean than there is no easy way to model risk. If a 2nd wave of Coronavirus infection is not wide spread during election season and there is still recovering jobs numbers then Trump gains from the crisis. The worse a 2nd wave is the better presumptive nominee Biden will do in Election 2020 polling.

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