Correlation, and Case Loads
Though I could ramble on with nuance details about these 4 charts it’s actually a very simple relationship between Bitcoin, the S&P500, and the Coronavirus.
Chart 1 shows that during uncertain times Bitcoin and the S&P500 are very correlated.
Chart 2 shows the S&P in pullback mode with the supports & gaps outlined. The market is pulling back for 2 reasons. It has been in an unabated raise since the last bottom and American Coronavirus cases are spiking.
Chart 3 shows the rise in cases but no rise in deaths yet. I believe the market is pricing in a rise in deaths the last 10 days. The time it takes from transmission to death means that the death chart should start to rise this week if there is a correlation.
If the death chart does not significantly rise in the next 14 to 17 days then the markets will likely start debating a risk-on atmosphere again. A lack of significant rise would likely be attributed to the age group of those getting the virus.
What’s Driving the New Deaths Per Day Chart?
The Spring wave really impacted the elderly. This early Summer wave has an average infection age nearly 20 years lower than the spring. This has been attributed to protests in some areas, and in other areas not.
Generally speaking American youth are not taking the virus as seriously as their international counterparts and the data shows it. This is a Federal, State, Municipal, and Family problem. There has been little in the way of strong leadership across the board.