Capital Flight & Bitcoin

People often talk about “capital flight”, Bitcoin, and China.

But is it true? If it is then it must apply to Hong Kong too, right? Well…

This could be a 10K word essay, however charts tell a more detailed story with far less words.

The theory is this: Currency issues and/or restrictions in a country (notably China in the past) force the average person to seek shelter in more safe assets. One of those happens to be Bitcoin at times. So they say.

While it is true that CNY devaluations often happen with BTC prices rising, it is not true that the average citizen of a nation is trying to protect their savings.

We will quickly examine China & Hong Kong vs Argentina & Venezuela.

The first chart is Hong Kong. It shows no large deviation from the BTCUSD price chart. For comparison the second chart, Singapore, was added. It looks much like Hong Kong’s. This does not indicate that the average citizen is using Bitcoin as a channel for capital flight or as a safe haven.

The third chart is China. It shows even less interest as a safe haven. China and Hong Kong are seeing just the ripples of turbulence in their currency. Argentina and Venezuela is what happens if the damn breaks. In those countries we can clearly see Bitcoin is used by the public and is a safe haven. (see below)

Is Bitcoin a safe haven asset? Yes, but only once it’s too late. Maybe there’s a lesson to be learned here??

Disclaimer

$DASH, the MasterNode King

click chart to enlarge
click chart to enlarge

DASH is showing signs of a bottom.

Is it an interm bottom, or something better?

DASH has been the undisputed king of MasterNode coins for years. Because of that it often signals what is to be expected of the altcoin sector. We are only looking at the BTC pair as that’s all that matters for getting the best price when trying to accumulate enough for a node.

The Charts

Chart #1 shows that when there is a long legged wick to the downside price almost always retests the bottom of the wick, and then turns up into a strong bounce or even bull market. That formation seems to be coming to completion.

Chart #2 shows that when price drops 63%, or greater, from the last swing high that a bounce and/or bull market is coming soon. The 2 structural bear markets both had a grand total of roughly 90% decline. The current conditions show that the current leg down is due for a bounce AND the structural bear market has almost finished it’s downward trend.

Now what?

The question becomes, “now what?” It is very possible that the price could cut in half again. Or we could be on the cusp of a new bull market. That’s a lot of uncertainty.

The charts we reviewed are all the 1W time frame. On the 1D price needs to be breaking 0.0098 to begin leaving the sideways range it’s currently in. Bulls start getting curious at 0.00925 and 0.0098 respectively. Anything under 0.0085 will start to attract the bears again.

Disclaimer

ETHEREUM

click chart to enlarge

Ethereum is in a fairly stable price channel, for now, but…

…can Bitcoin continue to drag Ethereum upwards?

The ETHBTC pair is not doing great at all, but it’s more a function of ETHUSD not going up at the same rate as BTCUSD, rather than ETHUSD selling off, which is encouraging. If ETHUSD continues to be pulled upwards by BTCUSD then USD/Fiat/Cash traders will follow the safe” high cap altcoins like ETH.

How is the price action looking?

Price consolidated in a triangle at the beginning of the year, broke upwards, retested the breakout, then resumed the upward trend in a fashion that has made a clear price channel.

The upside target would be near the upper limits of the channel where there is convergence with the horizontal price level/retail raid starting around $450. Downside will see price action traders rethinking their strategies if the price drops through any of the 3 small red horizontal lines on the right side of the chart.

All of 2019 has the StochRSI resolving at overbought each time it has left oversold. If that trend continues then the possibility of price reaching >$450 is high.

Disclaimer

New Mt. Gox Bitcoin Distribution Timeline

Announcement of Order to Change Schedule for Civil Rehabilitation Proceedings

MTGOX’s Bitcoin exchange users (“Users”) have delivered a large number of proofs of rehabilitation claims by post. Accordingly, the Rehabilitation Trustee requires a significant amount of time to seek correction of deficiencies in Users’ filed claims and to investigate the details of filed claims. In light of the foregoing, on January 23, 2019, the Tokyo District Court issued an order to change the submission deadlines for the statement by the Rehabilitation Trustee of approval or disapproval, among other matters, as below (“Order”). According to the Order, the submission deadline for the statement by the Rehabilitation Trustee of approval or disapproval on rehabilitation claims regarding Users’ rights to make claims against MTGOX for return of cryptocurrency and money (“Exchange-Related Rehabilitation Claim(s)”) has been changed to March 15, 2019. The period to examine proofs of rehabilitation claims regarding Exchange-Related Rehabilitation Claims has also been changed from March 22, 2019, to March 29, 2019. Concerning rehabilitation claims other than Exchange-Related Rehabilitation Claims, the submission deadline for the statement of approval or disapproval and the period to examine proofs of rehabilitation claims remains unchanged. Finally, the submission deadline for the proposed rehabilitation plan has been changed to April 26, 2019.

Source

Is Ripple Still on Repeat?

Ripple, XRP,

The pattern of price movement on the XRPBTC chart has been on auto-pilot repeat mode for 22months now. Therefore we currently have a VERY simple market view :

Bear: wait for the support to break and short it. Likely to be a short sell for a few months. Bullish tilt would emerge after sideways to play a relief rally.

Bull: long a breakout of resistance. This would also lend itself to the price pattern finally stopping its repetition after almost 2years of easy trades. Bearish tilt would be reactivated under the breakout of resistance.

Charts are powered by the SCMR Analysis Suite
Disclaimer

Is Ethereum in the Midst of its Seasonal Trend?

The Ethereum / Bitcoin pair seems to be in the midst of its seasonal trend…for now. If the Bitcoin bear market proves too strong then it will suffer and follow Bitcoin lower.

Ehtereum 1Day Chart | 12-30-2018
1-Day Chart

The ETHBTC 1D chart should be making the blue box formation now. The break in direction out of that blue box has been the “set up” trade versus the December 6th “knife catch” trade the past few years.


Ehtereum 1Day Chart | 12-30-2018
1-Week Ethereum

The 1W chart shows much of the same. In this one we are also taking note of the momentum as it is also making the same pattern as previous years. If ETHBTC can get a 50 to 100 day trend then the first hedging opportunity is: the close after the blue bar prints on the weekly.

It seems like the blue box on the daily should coincide with the weekly momentum reaching overbought. That confirms the view that the break in direction will form a new trend. That being bearish until it is oversold again, or bullish until the blue bar prints, and then reevaluate the market conditions.

Charts are powered by the SCMR Analysis Suite
Disclaimer

Litecoin

Litecoin Chart from 12-18-2018

Not sure what to say about Litecoin other than the bleeding obvious.

  • Lots of similarities in the downwards channel post all time highs. They are relentless in their resistance to upside movements.
  • All buys during accelerated selling events, aka when price goes below support, have turned into a profitable trades.
  • A year and a bit of downtrend is market by a halving event in both cases.

Will history repeat? It usually does in crypto, but if Litecoin does not go up in the Spring of 2019 towards the Summer halving event then that could be viewed as a bad sign for Bitcoin’s next halving.

If history does repeat then buying LTCUSD in the $20’s and selling when the LTCBTC ratio nears 0.018 – 0.019 is a potential trade to keep an eye on.

Charts are powered by the SCMR Analysis Suite
Disclaimer

DayTraderCoin Swap

DayTradercoin is upgrading to a masternode coin. Please follow the instruction below for the swap process.

 

Instructions for the swap:

– Go to “datadir” folder and backup the entire DayTraderCoin folder. Copy it to your desktop for now.
How to find your datadir:

Windows: go to search and type %appdata%
Linux: it should be in “/home/YourUserName/.DayTraderCoin”

– Make an account on http://chainswap.net/dtc-swap/
– Open old wallet and send your coins to the swap deposit address.
– Once coins confirm shutdown the wallet.
– Go back to the datadir and delete the entire “DayTraderCoin” folder.
– Download the new wallet. https://github.com/xSevithx/DayTraderCoin-MasterNodes/releases/download/2.1/DayTraderCoin-qt.exe
– Generate a new address. New DTC address start with a “9”
– Got back to your http://chainswap.net/dtc-swap/ account and navigate to “settings” then paste your address and submit.
– Once you get your coins then you can delete the DayTraderCoin folder that was backed up to the desktop.

Don’t forget to backup your wallet!

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