The chart speaks for itself, LTCBTC looks horrible if the pattern continues. The BTCUSD all time highs created a massive bear market in 2014 & 2018. In 2015 & 2019 LTC rallied on halving hype. In both cases price peaked well in advance, block halving was about 50% less price as the pre-halving rally, and then continued to decline. After both declines price then popped into a fakeout rally that ended up pushing further to the downside.
When Could it Break The Repetition?
The next sideways motion will create a market pivot point. Another breakdown will likely create the same pattern & measured move as before. The dominant bots/algos/market makers pushing the market have not been fine tuning the chart that is being painted. Until it invalidates itself it’s easy to assume the same results will continue to be duplicated.
After spending 3 years in a downtrend ZECBTC broke to the upside of trend earlier this year. The current retrace in price gives the opportunity for sideways accumulation to manifest. If so “trading the range” and then “adding on the breakout” seems like the swing trades to watch.
The first EOS weekly chart shows EOSBTC sitting on the Lower BBand which is also previous support from the last rally.
The other 2 times price broke under the Middle BBand and touched the Lower BBand it went into a larger bear market. A selloff near the numbers of the last 2 would create a 3 drives pattern. Be vigilant.
The second chart better shows the previous support bulls need to defend. If support fails then bears will be looking to short fairly hard under support based on the other 2 corrections.
The first chart shows a market signal on Ethereum’s ETHBTC chart that has been correct 12/13 times in the last 15 months when the criteria is “no green open and closes above the high of the pivot candle”. It has been correct 100% of the time when given small slippage, 5%.
The one time it was “wrong” is very similar market structure as now. Therefore price is at a time where it is better risk vs reward to wait for invalidation of the sell signal rather than buying a dip too soon.
The chart speaks for itself. The current market structure looks like the last micro cycle on the 1D chart. There is nothing bullish in the short term unless price gets over the pink rectangle.
How important is the next low? Very!
If this chart was zoomed out a bit you’d see a noticeable downtrend, then as seen here a low followed by a higher high. This current micro cycle is important because a higher low also means a higher low on the large downtrend. If that is the case then the next low has the potential to provide great returns.
It’s comical at this point that these XRP market structures are continuing to repeat. It was fun 3 years ago, helpful 2 years ago, and down right bizzare last year that the XRPBTC bubbles have stayed near carbon copies of previous years. Why can this happen? In my opinion the largest market force and its algo/trading bot(s) are the same force and with little to no reprogramming of movement. Obvious assumption is a Brad Garlinghouse and Ripple funding connection.
What Does This Mean For The Future?
I am making this article just as I made most of the updates on the original Tradingview post, as seen HERE , which is at key pivot points. It seems crazy this continues to play out, and if it does decide to break away from the pattern it will be at a pivot point. In this situation the pivot point is defined as a turning point between 2 smaller market cycles within the greater bubble cycle. I believe this is a pivot time.
The data suggest XRPBTC is going to drift down and the next low may be “the low”. XRPUSD has also held shape fairly well. It also suggests a retrace into “the low”. This bubble cycle has been a bit longer which is a factor that can cause delay. The USD pairing suggests movement is possible in 6 weeks. The BTC pairing suggests movement is more likely in 6 months.
It’s been fun so far. Hopefully the next update is the one we’ve been waiting for.
Back in March Bitcoin showed itself to be pa risk-off trade because of the Coronavirus pandemic. The fear of a lack of liquidity ravaged almost all global markets. Bitcoin was not spared.
The subsequent rally throughout April has done a solid FIB retrace and the retail raid zones on the 4H & 1D charts have provided resistance zones so far.
With halving in less than 2 weeks and a near complete recovery of the sell off this will certainly entice bears to try and push their weight around again soon.
BTCUSD has been moving along with stock markets as the world is trying to calculate what is fair value and what risk is worth taking on. Bitcoin will likely be an analog of the larger marketplace because liquidity is impacted across all markets when greed or fear is at play.
The pattern noted above, and some minor variations of it, are noticeable throughout the history of this market’s price history. I first noticed it while using BBands but removed them for this post because it’s far too busy looking with the extra lines.
Anatomy of the algo
After a bear market push a Head & Shoulders pattern develops as it bounces from the Lower BBand up-and-through the Upper BBand (not seen for reasons noted above). That is followed by a double top (2 pushes) with 2 strong retraces. Variations of the algo are more present on the 3rd push towards highs. The volume profile tends to echo the price action as well.
Currently there is wonky Head & Shoulders in the works with the price recently bouncing off the Lower BBand. History of the algo would suggest a bit of consolidation before picking a direction for a new measured move.
The SCMR system noted on the chart has now hit 6 out of 6 times. LTC is now in a 6th bull market…or maybe it ended??? Let’s take a look at the most probable options based on history and market models. Why are we even speculating you ask? Because this current rally has echos of the smallest previous rally of the signal noted above.
Bull bias is dip buying the current uptrend channel. Their narrative is strong based on the 4 of 5 previous bull markets that produced greater than 150% gains, it fell just short of 50% this time. They’ll likely be buyer until a red candle prints.
A general bullish market bias will likely remain strong even if the market moves like the black line on the far right which creates an obvious range trade.
Bearish traders see that the small rally after the last halving rolled off and that price sank very low. The orange resistance line and capped by the red hammer is the Bull/Bear price pivot for now. IF the price does follow the last halving dump fractal perfectly then the low should come in December 2020, just in time for the seasonal altcoin cycle. At least the worst case has an upside right?….right??