Capital Flight & Bitcoin

People often talk about “capital flight”, Bitcoin, and China.

But is it true? If it is then it must apply to Hong Kong too, right? Well…

This could be a 10K word essay, however charts tell a more detailed story with far less words.

The theory is this: Currency issues and/or restrictions in a country (notably China in the past) force the average person to seek shelter in more safe assets. One of those happens to be Bitcoin at times. So they say.

While it is true that CNY devaluations often happen with BTC prices rising, it is not true that the average citizen of a nation is trying to protect their savings.

We will quickly examine China & Hong Kong vs Argentina & Venezuela.

The first chart is Hong Kong. It shows no large deviation from the BTCUSD price chart. For comparison the second chart, Singapore, was added. It looks much like Hong Kong’s. This does not indicate that the average citizen is using Bitcoin as a channel for capital flight or as a safe haven.

The third chart is China. It shows even less interest as a safe haven. China and Hong Kong are seeing just the ripples of turbulence in their currency. Argentina and Venezuela is what happens if the damn breaks. In those countries we can clearly see Bitcoin is used by the public and is a safe haven. (see below)

Is Bitcoin a safe haven asset? Yes, but only once it’s too late. Maybe there’s a lesson to be learned here??

Disclaimer

Tesla Stock Takes a Beating

Tesla Stock Chart, Tradingview, TA
Click To Enlarge

Tesla (TSLA) Stock Weighing on Elon’s Future Plans

The main thesis of the chart is based on something I have heard a fair amount regarding Tesla, Elon Musk, and debt obligations. Which is that a combination of TSLA stock price near $150 & Elon’s debt serving obligations would force him to sell about 15% of of his shares.

When looking at the chart he probably doesn’t even want to think about that. Unfortunately for him in less than half a year the price has been cut in half and is now in an accelerating selloff into a critical support level.

If this current level breaks there is open air to $140. Bears and Tesla critics would love to spend every dime they can to push that level and crush the company and its founder.

Elon knows this. So there must be great news and/or capital being raised for release asap or else Elon is forced to sell at the break of support so that bears do not break him when he is down another 30% from here.

This is the first time the current level has been tested. Bears are fiesty and they’ll likely been adding to positions. Therefore a short squeeze off this level would not be out of the ordinary.

The deciding factor is Elon himself. If he knows there is minimal capital and news to work with then he has to sell some. If that happens then traders will see it on the chart. Have conditional orders set and ride the short bus down to pound town.

Technical Bounce and/or Short Squeeze Looming?

Price has seen a 50% reduction in half a year into accelerating momentum the last couple weeks. A 50% retrace is a juicy Gann number, as is the previous support level wich has never been tested until now. Cocky Bears often add to positions on the way down, so the possibility of a short squeeze off of support is fairly common the see in an accelerated market.

It is crucial that Elon create some hype and financial support for a bounce or else he will personally feel it. We are essentially betting on his ability to save his own rear end. Good Luck!

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Charts are powered by the SCMR Analysis Suite

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VISA

Click Chart to Enlarge

 

Visa is up well over 1000% from its lows during the 2008/9 financial crisis. The chart is a clear parabola and has shifted into top gear.

The corrective phase will begin in an environment of rising rates. This will result in the currently over leveraged public to tighten spending and thus reduce corporate profits. If the credit crunch continues this will lead to defaults and result in another leg down on the chart. How The Fed plays the first major corrective wave in the stock market will determine the health of credit companies, banks, and financial stocks.

The major takeaway from a chart like this is to newer traders is to a) buy the dips in times of major crisis b) average out of a position c) keep a small holding of profits in case the chart goes parabolic. This is exactly what good traders do with altcoins and what you should also do with stocks.

 

 

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Charts are powered by the SCMR Analysis Suite

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Disclosure: The author has no positions open on Visa.

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