With less that a week left in August the DXY is printing a Red Bar and dipping into oversold. In the last 30 years this has lead to a minimum 5 to 10% correction from the opening price of the Red Bar month all but once out of the 8 times it has happened.
Bulls need to fight history and get pumping. If not, then 88 and 82 are the first targets.
BCH has been ranging but the volume on bigger exchanges is so-so. Why is this happening when so many other markets are in rally mode?
The short answer is internal chaos. There has been a power struggle between company co-founders that seems to not be getting any better.
Bitmain presale operations has said that all June & July orders will not arrive until September or October at the earliest due to internal problems. It seems like the safest trade is buying with strength and buying the breakout from the range in the event that internal struggles break the price floor.
There are many social aspects to Ghost Month and Ghost Festival. One aspect is financial. A broad stroke synopsis for people unfamiliar with the festivities would be: a time when many Asian countries believe it is bad luck to be overly invested or involved in any financial transactions outside of common purchases.
Ghost Month and Ghost Festival is an important time in Chinese culture. It is also celebrated throughout Asia in places like Taiwan, Malaysia, Japan, and even India. In fact it was India where it all began. That means roughly 3 Billion people are aware of the superstitious elements…that is A LOT of market participants co-creating their reality.
For traders this does not mean that the market goes down every year. It does mean that regardless of market performance there is less liquidity in the financial markets. Since Asia is such a huge influence in the Bitcoin ecosystem it is important to understand the superstitions that impact markets, even if you don’t believe in them.
Even if you do not believe in this tradition there is less liquidity and more bearish pressure on the market, even in good times. Let’s take a look at some examples and charts.
Bitcoin: 1st Weekly of Ghost Month
Half a Decade of Observations
Me Talking About Ghost Month & Ghost Festival: From 17:48-23:36
Lots of Chinese holiday & festival dates near Bitcoin price pivots.
This was a historical study showing market momentum turning downward with Ghost Month. 2017 was a Bull Market, but the time around Ghost Month did form a rounded top into a small pullback.
Selloff into Ghost Month and a rally once it ended, awesome! In the early years when BTC/Fiat markets had less institutional trading instruments Chinese traders and miners superstitions were even more noticeable on charts than they are today.
Price did breakdown and it proved to be the bottom before the rally to $20K.
Ghost Month & Ghost Festival
When does it occur?
The fifteenth day of the seventh month in the Chinese lunar calendar is called Ghost Day and the seventh month in general is regarded as the Ghost Month. There are small variations across cultures, but those are the most common dates used.
Who observes it?
China, Taiwan, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Indonesia and India. The largest scale of observance is in China and Taiwan. This is a lot of people.
China, and Asia in general, continue to be a major player in crypto markets and I believe it is unwise not to understand their traditions and holidays if they can impact markets.
Where to observe it?
At home, public spaces, monasteries, large festivals & gatherings, pretty much anywhere. This usually involves food in many different ways.
The origins of the festival are something I’ll leave to Wikipedia:
Maudgalyayana discovers that his deceased mother was reborn into the preta or hungry ghost realm. She was in a wasted condition and Maudgalyayana tried to help her by giving her a bowl of rice. Unfortunately as a preta, she was unable to eat the rice as it was transformed into burning coal.
Maudgalyayana then asks the Buddha to help him; whereupon Buddha explains how one is able to assist one’s current parents and deceased parents in this life and in one’s past seven lives by willingly offering food, etc., to the sangha or monastic community during Pravarana (the end of the monsoon season or vassa), which usually occurs on the 15th day of the seventh month whereby the monastic community transfers the merits to the deceased parents, etc
The tradition has spread throughout much of Asia with the aspects of the afterlife and food offerings being fairly universal in all countries and cultures. China would be the country that both has the most people and most observers of Ghost festivities. Since the festival has financial implications, and China is the biggest single Bitcoin market participant it, is wise to understand this holiday.
Ghost Month Bitcoin Returns
Ghost Month Start
Bitcoin Price in $USD
Bitcoin Price in $USD
Ghost Month End
Bitcoin Price in $USD
Aug 19, 2020
Sep 02, 2020
Sep 16, 2020
Aug 01, 2019
Aug 15, 2019
Aug 29, 2019
Aug 11, 2018
Aug 25, 2018
Sep 09, 2018
Aug 22, 2017
Sep 05, 2017
Sep 19, 2017
Aug 03, 2016
Aug 17, 2016
Aug 31, 2016
Aug 14, 2015
Aug 28, 2015
Sep 12, 2015
Jul 27, 2014
Aug 10, 2014
Aug 24, 2014
Aug 07, 2013
Aug 21, 2013
Sep 04, 2013
Aug 17, 2012
Aug 31, 2012
Sep 15, 2012
Jul 31, 2011
Aug 14, 2011
Aug 28, 2011
Aug 10, 2010
Aug 24, 2010
Sep 07, 2010
Ghost Month Bitcoin Returns: Descriptions
July 10 @ $13100 sold off to Aug 1 low with a 28% decline. Price went up but ended lower at the end of ghost month. Later consolidation leads to a sell off and bottom on Dec 18
July 24 @ $8484 sold off to Aug 11 low with a 31% decline. Price went up but ended flat at the end of ghost month. Later consolidation leads to a sell off and bottom on Dec 15.
This was in the midst of a massive bull market. The 1 month period was flat, however it contained the largest bull market correction at 40.5%
Market action over the month was flat. But the 4 days prior to starting was a sharp 25% correction. And the 4 days after was a breakout.
There was a 25% correction between the start of Ghost Month and Ghost Festival. This was the last selloff before the $20K Bull market began.
Ghost Month began the same day that a large triangle broke down. This did not end until Jan 14 2015.
The Bull market got the best of Ghost Month. But shortly after it ended there was a sharp 2 day 30% stop run to 106.78 that got within 10% of the start date.
The start day was the end of a large rally. It lead to a 3 day 50% selloff to $7.67
Ghost Month began the same day that a large triangle broke down. The Ghost Month drawdown was 56%. This bear market did not end until Nov 18 at an 85% correction.
There was drawdown from 7cents to 3cents during Ghost Month
There was a turn date yesterday August 19 2020 and the next one is not until December 2 2020. Let’s take a look at how the turn dates interact with the Bitcoin and Gold charts. After that we’ll look at some market sources, resources, and a brief description of how the Bradley Sideograph works. Enjoy!
Bradley turn dates in red. Short dotted blue line represents the horizontal resistance near the turn date. The dotted blue line becomes a simple bullish breakout level to long the market if it is an upwards turn.
Bradley turn dates in red. Black lines represent bull market horizontal resistance levels.
In 1948 Donald Bradley wrote a book called “Stock Market Prediction: The Planetary Barometer and How to Use It.” This book presented a tool known as the Donald Bradley Siderograph, which is intended to leverage “the potency of major planetary aspects…to prove the correspondence between planetary operations and market responses.” The term “siderograph” means star graph. The ancients saw planets as “wandering stars,” which is how they developed the predecessor word for “planet” in ancient Greek (i.e., “astēr planētēs”).
The Bradley Siderograph is one of the most interesting and popular forecasting methodologies in the field of Financial Astrology. This field involves leveraging astronomical and astrological data to understand and forecast activity in the financial markets. However, Financial Astrology is far broader and richer than this methodology alone, and its origins date back several thousand years.
How to Use the Donald Bradley Siderograph
The siderograph is typically used to identify turning points (i.e., trend reversals) in the market over the medium- to long-term rather than predicting the exact movement of the market across time. Turning points include inversions, which occur when the stock market bottoms when the siderograph tops, or vice versa.
Therefore, turning points in the siderograph can indicate both tops and bottoms in the stock market. It is important to not place undue influence on the amplitude of the siderograph. Turning points taking place at the top or bottom of a large crest do not necessarily imply a more significant market turning point.
Also, siderograph turning points typically indicate market turning points within 4-7 calendar days rather than being exact to the day of the turning point. Sophisticated market professionals use the Bradley siderograph in conjunction with other fundamental and technical market factors rather than using it alone to inform their trading.
The Litecoin LTCBTC chart is not going up with other altcoins right now, not even a little bit. It seems more safe to buy with strength than gamble on dips right now.
Long- on horizontal levels breaking to the upside. Short- the breakdown of the possible wedge forming. These seem to be the momentum plays so that capital doesn’t get stuck while other markets are moving.
If this is another round of legitimate price discovery by Tezos then XTZUSD will stay above the support levels drawn. The upside areas to look and see if the Bears are getting interested would come around $5, $6.30, and $7.