Bitcoin COT & Data (Week Ending Sep 4)
Data Summary
Commitment of Traders Report
- Dealers STILL have no Long positions
- Leveraged Funds grow their Short position
- Everyone other than Leveraged Funds seemed to looking at $12K breaking
Bitcoin Hash Rate 7 Day Average
Bitcoin Hash Rate 7 day rolling average continues to consolidate near all time highs.
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index
Fear & Greed go absolutely smashed on this last sell off. 40’s was last seen when BTCUSD was trying to break the $9600-9800 area.
Bitcoin COT & Data (Week Ending Aug 21)
Data Summary
Commitment of Traders Report
- Dealers STILL have no Long positions
- Leveraged Funds added size to their net Short this week
- NonReportables and Reportables piled on the Longs at the same time, which doesn’t happen too often.
Bitcoin Hash Rate 7 Day Average
Bitcoin Hash Rate 7 day rolling average continues to consolidate but there was a large hiccup in the 1 day raw data as there was a landslide that impacted miners in Sichuan Province, China.
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index
Fear & Greed is still in the high 70’s. Seems like traders are getting complacent, especially with Ghost Month upon us.
Ghost Month and Bitcoin
Be Careful with Money, Investments, and Contracts
There are many social aspects to Ghost Month and Ghost Festival. One aspect is financial. A broad stroke synopsis for people unfamiliar with the festivities would be: a time when many Asian countries believe it is bad luck to be overly invested or involved in any financial transactions outside of common purchases.
Ghost Month and Ghost Festival is an important time in Chinese culture. It is also celebrated throughout Asia in places like Taiwan, Malaysia, Japan, and even India. In fact it was India where it all began. That means roughly 3 Billion people are aware of the superstitious elements…that is A LOT of market participants co-creating their reality.
For traders this does not mean that the market goes down every year. It does mean that regardless of market performance there is less liquidity in the financial markets. Since Asia is such a huge influence in the Bitcoin ecosystem it is important to understand the superstitions that impact markets, even if you don’t believe in them.
Even if you do not believe in this tradition there is less liquidity and more bearish pressure on the market, even in good times. Let’s take a look at some examples and charts.
Bitcoin: 1st Weekly of Ghost Month
Half a Decade of Observations
2020
Me Talking About Ghost Month & Ghost Festival: From 17:48-23:36
2019
Lots of Chinese holiday & festival dates near Bitcoin price pivots.
2017
This was a historical study showing market momentum turning downward with Ghost Month. 2017 was a Bull Market, but the time around Ghost Month did form a rounded top into a small pullback.
The chart above is taken from this TradingView idea. —> https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/8TdgdbdV-Bitcoin-Ghost-Month/
2016
Selloff into Ghost Month and a rally once it ended, awesome! In the early years when BTC/Fiat markets had less institutional trading instruments Chinese traders and miners superstitions were even more noticeable on charts than they are today.
2015
Price did breakdown and it proved to be the bottom before the rally to $20K.
Ghost Month & Ghost Festival
When does it occur?
The fifteenth day of the seventh month in the Chinese lunar calendar is called Ghost Day and the seventh month in general is regarded as the Ghost Month. There are small variations across cultures, but those are the most common dates used.
Who observes it?
China, Taiwan, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Indonesia and India. The largest scale of observance is in China and Taiwan. This is a lot of people.
China, and Asia in general, continue to be a major player in crypto markets and I believe it is unwise not to understand their traditions and holidays if they can impact markets.
Where to observe it?
At home, public spaces, monasteries, large festivals & gatherings, pretty much anywhere. This usually involves food in many different ways.
Why?
The origins of the festival are something I’ll leave to Wikipedia:
The timing and origin story of the modern Ghost Festival, however, ultimately originated from ancient India, deriving from the Mahayana scripture known as the Yulanpen or Ullambana Sutra. The sutra records the time when Maudgalyayana achieves abhijñā and uses his new found powers to search for his deceased parents.
Maudgalyayana discovers that his deceased mother was reborn into the preta or hungry ghost realm. She was in a wasted condition and Maudgalyayana tried to help her by giving her a bowl of rice. Unfortunately as a preta, she was unable to eat the rice as it was transformed into burning coal.
Maudgalyayana then asks the Buddha to help him; whereupon Buddha explains how one is able to assist one’s current parents and deceased parents in this life and in one’s past seven lives by willingly offering food, etc., to the sangha or monastic community during Pravarana (the end of the monsoon season or vassa), which usually occurs on the 15th day of the seventh month whereby the monastic community transfers the merits to the deceased parents, etc
The tradition has spread throughout much of Asia with the aspects of the afterlife and food offerings being fairly universal in all countries and cultures. China would be the country that both has the most people and most observers of Ghost festivities. Since the festival has financial implications, and China is the biggest single Bitcoin market participant it, is wise to understand this holiday.
Ghost Month Bitcoin Returns
| Year | Ghost Month Start | Bitcoin Price in $USD | Ghost Festival | Bitcoin Price in $USD | Ghost Month End | Bitcoin Price in $USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Aug 19, 2020 | 11964.11 | Sep 02, 2020 | Sep 16, 2020 | ||
| 2019 | Aug 01, 2019 | 10092.53 | Aug 15, 2019 | 10301.61 | Aug 29, 2019 | 9487.34 |
| 2018 | Aug 11, 2018 | 6147.49 | Aug 25, 2018 | 6733.52 | Sep 09, 2018 | 6239.35 |
| 2017 | Aug 22, 2017 | 3998.35 | Sep 05, 2017 | 4414.82 | Sep 19, 2017 | 3902.34 |
| 2016 | Aug 03, 2016 | 562.39 | Aug 17, 2016 | 572.40 | Aug 31, 2016 | 575.71 |
| 2015 | Aug 14, 2015 | 265.12 | Aug 28, 2015 | 231.66 | Sep 12, 2015 | 233.46 |
| 2014 | Jul 27, 2014 | 594.63 | Aug 10, 2014 | 590.39 | Aug 24, 2014 | 508.29 |
| 2013 | Aug 07, 2013 | 98.19 | Aug 21, 2013 | 109.83 | Sep 04, 2013 | 121.23 |
| 2012 | Aug 17, 2012 | 13.38 | Aug 31, 2012 | 10.16 | Sep 15, 2012 | 11.67 |
| 2011 | Jul 31, 2011 | 13.38 | Aug 14, 2011 | 10.75 | Aug 28, 2011 | 9.08 |
| 2010 | Aug 10, 2010 | 0.07 | Aug 24, 2010 | 0.06 | Sep 07, 2010 | 0.06 |
Ghost Month Bitcoin Returns: Descriptions
| Year | Notes |
|---|---|
| 2020 | |
| 2019 | July 10 @ $13100 sold off to Aug 1 low with a 28% decline. Price went up but ended lower at the end of ghost month. Later consolidation leads to a sell off and bottom on Dec 18 |
| 2018 | July 24 @ $8484 sold off to Aug 11 low with a 31% decline. Price went up but ended flat at the end of ghost month. Later consolidation leads to a sell off and bottom on Dec 15. |
| 2017 | This was in the midst of a massive bull market. The 1 month period was flat, however it contained the largest bull market correction at 40.5% |
| 2016 | Market action over the month was flat. But the 4 days prior to starting was a sharp 25% correction. And the 4 days after was a breakout. |
| 2015 | There was a 25% correction between the start of Ghost Month and Ghost Festival. This was the last selloff before the $20K Bull market began. |
| 2014 | Ghost Month began the same day that a large triangle broke down. This did not end until Jan 14 2015. |
| 2013 | The Bull market got the best of Ghost Month. But shortly after it ended there was a sharp 2 day 30% stop run to 106.78 that got within 10% of the start date. |
| 2012 | The start day was the end of a large rally. It lead to a 3 day 50% selloff to $7.67 |
| 2011 | Ghost Month began the same day that a large triangle broke down. The Ghost Month drawdown was 56%. This bear market did not end until Nov 18 at an 85% correction. |
| 2010 | There was drawdown from 7cents to 3cents during Ghost Month |
Dates Visualized
What Will 2020 Bring?
Gold & Bitcoin Bradley Siderograph Turn Dates 2020
There was a turn date yesterday August 19 2020 and the next one is not until December 2 2020. Let’s take a look at how the turn dates interact with the Bitcoin and Gold charts. After that we’ll look at some market sources, resources, and a brief description of how the Bradley Sideograph works. Enjoy!
BITCOIN
Bradley turn dates in red. Short dotted blue line represents the horizontal resistance near the turn date. The dotted blue line becomes a simple bullish breakout level to long the market if it is an upwards turn.
GOLD
Bradley turn dates in red. Black lines represent bull market horizontal resistance levels.
Bradley Siderograph Source Dates
The graphs below are from here —> https://bradleysiderograph.com/donald-bradley-siderograph-2015/
Origins of the Donald Bradley Siderograph
In 1948 Donald Bradley wrote a book called “Stock Market Prediction: The Planetary Barometer and How to Use It.” This book presented a tool known as the Donald Bradley Siderograph, which is intended to leverage “the potency of major planetary aspects…to prove the correspondence between planetary operations and market responses.” The term “siderograph” means star graph. The ancients saw planets as “wandering stars,” which is how they developed the predecessor word for “planet” in ancient Greek (i.e., “astēr planētēs”).
The Bradley Siderograph is one of the most interesting and popular forecasting methodologies in the field of Financial Astrology. This field involves leveraging astronomical and astrological data to understand and forecast activity in the financial markets. However, Financial Astrology is far broader and richer than this methodology alone, and its origins date back several thousand years.
How to Use the Donald Bradley Siderograph
The siderograph is typically used to identify turning points (i.e., trend reversals) in the market over the medium- to long-term rather than predicting the exact movement of the market across time. Turning points include inversions, which occur when the stock market bottoms when the siderograph tops, or vice versa.
Therefore, turning points in the siderograph can indicate both tops and bottoms in the stock market. It is important to not place undue influence on the amplitude of the siderograph. Turning points taking place at the top or bottom of a large crest do not necessarily imply a more significant market turning point.
Also, siderograph turning points typically indicate market turning points within 4-7 calendar days rather than being exact to the day of the turning point. Sophisticated market professionals use the Bradley siderograph in conjunction with other fundamental and technical market factors rather than using it alone to inform their trading.
Learn more here —> https://bradleysiderograph.com/
Disclosure. The author owns BTC & Gold related products.
Flooding in China Impacts Bitcoin Miners
Three Gorges Dam Inflows to Peak Wednesday
As I have been warning for the last 3-4 weeks, flooding has reached mining areas of Sichuan Province in China and operations are being impacted. Here is a thread showing the damages to the area and miners.
Disclosure. The author owns BTC.
Bitcoin COT & Data (Week Ending Aug 14)
Data Summary
Commitment of Traders Report:
COT Report much of the same this week.
- Dealers STILL have no Long positions
- Institutions cut just over half their Longs and are net Short
- Leveraged Funds net short as always.
- NonReportables continue to be very Long
Bitcoin Hash Rate 7 day rolling average continues to consolidate at all time highs.
Fear & Greed is still in the high 70’s. This is historically fairly high, especially since it was in the 40’s last month.
Bitcoin COT Report
Bitcoin Hash Rate 7 Day Average
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index
Bitcoin Support Levels
With much of Asia, North America, and Europe in the thick of Summer holidays liquidity thins out and pullbacks can be quick & sharp.
A break above $12100 will trigger Bullish conditional orders. Dip buyers are looking for reactions at the blue boxes.
Disclosure. The author owns BTC.
