Algorand market structure is showing some signs of repetition. Strength buyers are looking for a push above the downtrend channel. Dip buyers are looking for a push towards and/or through the bottom of the channel .
The first chart shows that the last 2 speculative bubbles look very similar on the weekly chart. The last 9 months has been sideways ranging much like the tail-end of the last bubble cycle as well. The Blue Bar on the Weekly chart is a buy signal, but it comes with a caution flag due to the obvious repetition of the past.
Short term invalidation of the pattern will happen if there is a sudden breakout from the range as seen in the second chart. Dip buyers will take a look at movements into the blue rectangle that come with high volume. Strength buyers will be looking a pushes above the 2 horizontal red lines.
Disclosure. The author does not own any Stellar…yet.
The first EOS weekly chart shows EOSBTC sitting on the Lower BBand which is also previous support from the last rally.
The other 2 times price broke under the Middle BBand and touched the Lower BBand it went into a larger bear market. A selloff near the numbers of the last 2 would create a 3 drives pattern. Be vigilant.
The second chart better shows the previous support bulls need to defend. If support fails then bears will be looking to short fairly hard under support based on the other 2 corrections.
Back in March Bitcoin showed itself to be pa risk-off trade because of the Coronavirus pandemic. The fear of a lack of liquidity ravaged almost all global markets. Bitcoin was not spared.
The subsequent rally throughout April has done a solid FIB retrace and the retail raid zones on the 4H & 1D charts have provided resistance zones so far.
With halving in less than 2 weeks and a near complete recovery of the sell off this will certainly entice bears to try and push their weight around again soon.
BTCUSD has been moving along with stock markets as the world is trying to calculate what is fair value and what risk is worth taking on. Bitcoin will likely be an analog of the larger marketplace because liquidity is impacted across all markets when greed or fear is at play.
The pattern noted above, and some minor variations of it, are noticeable throughout the history of this market’s price history. I first noticed it while using BBands but removed them for this post because it’s far too busy looking with the extra lines.
Anatomy of the algo
After a bear market push a Head & Shoulders pattern develops as it bounces from the Lower BBand up-and-through the Upper BBand (not seen for reasons noted above). That is followed by a double top (2 pushes) with 2 strong retraces. Variations of the algo are more present on the 3rd push towards highs. The volume profile tends to echo the price action as well.
Currently there is wonky Head & Shoulders in the works with the price recently bouncing off the Lower BBand. History of the algo would suggest a bit of consolidation before picking a direction for a new measured move.