ETH Seasonal Pivot Approaching

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This idea started on my Twitter account and then I added to it. Here it is archived for the blog. As you can see ETH has been bound to certain key dates. It is now time for it to start making its seasonal pivot.

 

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Ethereum to Bitcoin Comparison

AltSeason 2018???

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Most crypto traders are starving for an “AltSeason” so that the non BTC markets can rally off recent lows. The general theory for the last couple years is “as ETH goes, so goes the rest of the altcoin market”. If so, then history suggests that most altcoin markets are near their cyclical bottoms.

As seen in the chart, ETH has been bound to a number of key dates, and like clockwork it keeps repeating the pattern. This would suggest a higher low to made on the daily into solstice with the market turning upwards around Boxing Day. If ETH and other markets keep moving upwards and do follow LTC’s recent movements then it is a clear sign that a top is in for all markets much like the market movements in late 2013 & early 2014. Meaning in that situation, Alts would spike rally like LTC and top with BTC then all roll off with BTC.

 

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CRW (11.24.17)

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Click Chart to Enlarge

 

The first chart shows CRW trying to break out out a 2 month long falling/descending wedge. A confirmed reversal is printing with priced above 17300-17200sats.

The second chart shows price finding support of this longer term order block. It very recently dipped below it while inside this wedge and is trying to pop above now. If this breakout is real then that dip could be a “spring” as seen from the Wyckoff market models. CRW is a MasterNode coin with a decent dev and some market support from some higher cap individuals. This is a market worth watching.

 

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DASH Consolidation Caution

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Click Chart to Enlarge

 

DASH Consolidation Caution

 

The volume profile on DASH is not looking too hot right now and warrants caution. Even if the price does breaks upwards the chance of a hard retrace is very real at this point. If the price continues to go sideways and more buys show up then the conditions change. As of now the sell volume is in charge and needs to be respected.

 

Due to the current location of daily candles the plays seem to be, LONG above the yellow horizontal support & above the green sloping downtrend. SHORT position is triggered below the yellow horizontal line with targets around 0.015 ish and if lower then about 0.0126 ish should provide strong support.

 

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BTC BITCOIIN

New Bitcoin Horizontal Pivot

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Click Chart to Enlarge

 

 

New Bitcoin Horizontal Pivot

 

Very straight forward Bitcoin (BTC) chart today. All of our previous analysis has been spot on, and that is due to the assumption BTC price is going to experience a 3rd wave of the current bull market. The patterns will not be 100% replicas but the general wave structure rarely lets us down. If this is true then some where around $625 on the Futures Quarterly contract become the new horizontal bull-bear pivot point.

 

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Peercoin (PPC)

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Click Chart to Enlarge

 

Peercoin (PPC)

 

 

Someone forgot to send the fax to Peercoin (PPC) that altcoins were pumping last year, and unfortunately the bleeding might continue further. BTC-e alts like PPC, NMC, NVC are in roughly the same price trends though their momentums are a bit different. PPC has tend to lead the group in the past and if so the Weekly chart says the possibility of more downside is very real.

 

Every other time the price forced the StochRSI below 50 it has pushed down to oversold and reset. A spike below support would be a great buying opportunity, why? The price has been falling in a descending wedge therefore the probability of an eventual rally is high. This is no trade to rush into. But the long term trader will want to place some low bids to take advantage of a 2x bounce, or a 4x bounce if it breaks out on the next trip up to oversold.

 

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Reddcoin (RDD)

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Click Chart to Enlarge

 

 Reddcoin (RDD)

 

I have had a lot of requests for Reddcoin (RDD) over the years, so here is an update. The momentum on the weekly chart is down with a strong resistance at 14 Satoshi. A breakout above that will send the general public into the market and not just die hard fans. Those same die hard fans should be buying the heck out of the 4 Satoshi level if the price continues to move down this price channel in oversold conditions as seen on the daily chart.

 

Support should be at 4 Satoshi. The micro trend breakout is at 9 and would send the price to the hard resistance at 14. A breakout of 14 would signal a larger bull market in which many more traders will participate leading to higher volume for the low buyers to exit into.

 

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BTC BITCOIIN

Bitcoin Choptoberfest

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Click Chart to Enlarge

 

 

 Bitcoin Choptoberfest

 

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to keep playing out the equinox and then slow upwards chop pattern. On a weekly basis the price does drift upwards, but daytraders tend to get chopped up in this environment. The main reason that happens is the lack of patience.

 

By continually attacking the support trend and pushing through it a few dollars at a time it forces most people to cut their positions because they are tired of waiting and will “just buy the breakout”. I say this all from a bull bias because both the fundamentals and the technicals point towards a likely third bull wave for Bitcoin. However, for that to happen people must start shorting the market. Therefore I think the market makers will continue the cat and mouse game of mentioned above and that it will continue until the market gives up buying the dips and/or starts accumulating shorts.

 

Our motto for the season is “relax and wait”. It will be tough to have a margin position on many exchanges due to fees if this extended chop continues. Best trades based on the past 2 cycles were to buy the retraces on the yellow line on the chart. Below that would activate a short position.

 

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BTC BITCOIIN

Bitcoin Pivot

 

bitcoin bull Trend Pivot

 

Ƀitcoin is at a major price pivot right now. The structure of the last 3 bull market moves (see chart at the bottom of the page) is very similar, and in the coming days it will have to pick a direction. Currently the price action is more like the bullish fractal in the center of the chart than the bearish one to the left of the chart. The daily candles are printing neutral grey, which is too bad because even the slightest bit green or red will kick start a trend.

 

There was not a large blow off top price spike to mark the top of this last bull run, so the possibility of more upside has to be entertained. The StochRSI is about to cross 50 and head to oversold. We are seeing clear diminishing volume on the chart as well. This is important because that type of volume profile resolves itself with a large move and rarely a small one. If this plays out we could see upside action for the last half of July with targets based on the FIB Extension tool.

 

Often I talk about trend lines and triangles, but the short term chart (the fist chart below) is hinged on a horizontal level. The daily candles are not green thus crucial to know your personal “line in the sand” so you can exit before a bear trend begins. Chances are that line in the sand is the lower yellow line on the chart seen below. Wicks are important too, but when that many candle bodies form a straight line then that horizontal level becomes the key pivot on the chart. That is what I see happening thus the level of about $665 is the bearish pivot zone.

 

Bitcoin
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Bitcoin
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July 4th, 2016

 

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