Disclosure. The author does not have any NatGas positions.
It Seems So Close
NatGas is very close to hitting the bottom of a multi-year channel as seen in the first chart. Winter heating demands make a solid argument for why NAGASUSD could push to the bottom of the channel. Supply overhang has been an issue as well.
Between Summer heat and reduced commercial building occupancy in the Coronavirus era an early rally would not be retail driven. Sideways into September, like seen in the second chart, would indicate deep pockets want a position for a winter bounce.
Disclosure. The author does have a NATGASUSD position.