CA25 & November Implications

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A Rapidly Changing Narrative

Democrat Katie Hill flipped this seat in the last election with 54.4% of the vote over incumbent Republican Steve Knight, who had 45.6%. Mike Garcia reclaiming CA25 by a 12 point margin in LA/Ventura mixed with Biden’s over performance in the California Primary shows that more people want a “moderate” approach to politics than the media is letting on.

The rapidly changing outbreaks across the world mean than there is no easy way to model risk. If a 2nd wave of Coronavirus infection is not wide spread during election season and there is still recovering jobs numbers then Trump gains from the crisis. The worse a 2nd wave is the better presumptive nominee Biden will do in Election 2020 polling.


Trump has a Betting Chance




Every meaningful statistic has Clinton beating Trump in the election. I myself think she is the locked-in “chosen one” that can’t lose the election. But there is one huge elephant in the room most people have not even realized is there….gambling.


Currently Clinton is leading the odds with an over 90% chance of winning & over 80% of the money on her becoming president. If we were analyzing a stock and knew 90% of the public was long you can bet your bottom dollar the correct call would be short. The phrase “the house always wins” means that the game is crafted in a way in which the public does not win the majority of bets it places.


This is the part when someone reading this article says “well this is politics not stocks, gambling, etc. That was my first reaction too…..but then I started doing research.


The first very alarming realization was that as betting has grown so have the amount of “surprise” election results. I have noticed this as a growing trend here in Canada and is seen through out the world. Provincially the NDP blew a 20pt lead to lose an election a few years ago. The last 2 Provincial elections in Alberta yielded surprise results too. The most shocking would be the last Federal election where the NDP started with a huge lead, gave it back to the conservatives, then out of no where the NDP crumbled and the longshot 3rd place Liberals destroyed everyone on election night.


Globally we very recently all stood shocked as the UK voted YES to the BREXIT vote when all polls said the NO vote was going to win. Have pollsters lost their touch, or could it be more….dare I say, nefarious? It could be the more nefarious answer due to one blinding fact, betting on political outcomes is a growing business and the political process should not be tied to these types of actions.


It is a well known fact that a handful of corporations comprise the economic web of trade & commerce that spans the planet. We also know these huge corporations and banks donate to the political process, lobby politicians directly, and also have ties to the media. It almost seems as if the media crafts public opinion and then rich political donors bet against the favorites as they already know the statistics are not true. That seems very far fetched, but if a World Series can be manipulated 100yrs ago then it could happen to the political process of today. I for one feel that betting should not be allowed on anything that involves democratic rights.


So here we sit hours before the historic election. Clinton with every single statistical data point in her favor, and Trump with all the contrarian betting odds in his favor. I personally feel Clinton has this in the bag. But, and big but, but if she loses then it is clear that the gambling industry and media/polling services are illegally colluding. The pattern of surprise election results with growing gambling books needs to stop.

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